The Journey begins

October 2nd, 2008 by admin

October 6, 2019:

Tomorrow, I leave Clayton for good. I have to say…I’m quite nervous. I’m joining up with a group of people that I don’t really know all that well, to go on a journey which may show me things that I’m not sure I want to see. But what choice do I have? Staying here really isn’t an option anymore…not since last year’s earthquake destroyed the last bits of infrastructure that we had out here.

Our community was an unusual collection of wealthy suburbanites and down-to-earth horse ranchers. The last few years saw the wealthy people, one by one, move to the city or back east, as gas prices rose and suburban real estate collapsed. In many cases, it made no sense to try and sell their houses, there was no one to buy them, so they simply left the houses to squatters and others. The horse ranchers didn’t really fare too much better, there being very few patrons to support the buying and selling of prize horseflesh. Some of them consolidated and stayed, while others left.

I stayed longer than most, because of a unique situation. The owner of the townhouse I rented had vanished in 2017. He was a Korean dentist, and had been living abroad for many years. He rented the house to me because he was unable to sell it after the real estate collapse of 2010. There was some rumors that he had died from an early form of ReDS, but there was no way to know for sure. When no relatives contacted me to claim ownership, I simply stayed on, rent-free.

Even with the declining situation all around me, and $10 gasoline, I was able to hang on due to the fact that I could work remotely. As long as I had the Internet, I was OK. For the time being, the utilities stayed on, and there was enough food to be had at local farmer’s markets to keep things tenable, although I had to deal with more and more frequent power outages.

The earthquake was the final straw. It just so happens that Clayton lies on top of both an earthquake fault and an (until recently) active oil pipeline. The quake, while not very big, was centered directly under Clayton, which resulted in the rupture of the oil pipeline. Most of the area surrounding my development has been contaminated, and I was only allowed back into the community briefly to evacuate what belongings I could. Given the current state of government in California, I think that it is very unlikely that anyone will be cleaning up the area any time soon. It will simply be cheaper to cordon it off and let it sit for a few hundred thousand years.

So…it was with much coincidence and serendipity…as usually happens in situations like these, that I met Mike. Mike is the leader of a nomadic group of techno-savvy people, who banded together for mutual support. They roam from place to place, attempting to patch together the computing and communications infrastructure where they can. They buy and sell computer and electronic hardware, and hack together solutions, for a fee. The rest of his group consisted of mechanics, cooks and the like. He was willing to bring someone on as long as they could contribute a skill that could either make them money or keep the group moving.

Mike’s group was in the area, had heard about the earthquake, and thought there might be some opportunities around. We met while browsing the bulletin board at a local emergency shelter.

It turns out that Mike was looking to bring aboard someone who had experience repairing 4-wheel-drive vehicles. It was just my luck that I had belonged to a Land Cruiser Club for many years, and I was able to perform some advanced maintenance procedures. Luckily, those vehicles were designed to be repaired in the field, so basic mechanical knowledge and a good manual go a long way. Mike thought that my computer skills and my mechanical aptitude would make a good fit for the group. I agreed to take on trial membership in the group while we make our way to the East Coast, where I will decide whether or not to become a permanent member.

So, I’m gathering up my things and saying goodbye to friends. I will be meeting up with Mike and the rest of the group tomorrow, and we will be heading to Sacramento as we make our way to Reno. I’m very apprehensive, but I am also very eager to meet the rest of my new traveling companions.

More to come soon…

{This post is part of SuperStruct: The Game!}

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GlobalTV.com | Burn Up

June 18th, 2008 by admin

This show seems really interesting, and timely.  I hope we get to see it in the U.S., or at least I can order it from Netflix.

“Burn Up” is a high stakes conspiracy thriller set against the backdrop of the oil industry. It is a story that mirrors the world in which we live and where we struggle to be both economically successful and globally responsible.”

“Burn Up” is a Trojan horse of a story. It delivers an eviscerating tale where the stakes are terrifyingly real and the climate issues, the intrigue, the global politics, the back room dealings and the espionage are happening today in our world.”

GlobalTV.com | Burn Up

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Crude Oil: how high can it go? (19th century whaling as a model for oil depletion and price volatility)

June 3rd, 2008 by admin

Whale oil production and prices (adjusted for inflation)

Ugo Bardi presents a nice example of Hubbert’s Curve in action, showing pricing and depletion for a resource different from crude oil: whale oil and bone in the 19th century.

Although whale is technically a “renewable” resource, Bardi explains that it behaved like a non-renewable resource because it was hunted at a much higher rate than it could be renewed. Even though whale oil and bone was nowhere near as crucial to 19th century life as crude oil is to 21st century life, there is a clear parallel between the pricing behavior of the two.

The conclusions that Bardi reaches is that prices will continue to rise, and along with this general rise we will see high volatility and fluctuations. These fluctuations are due to feedback loops and the slow response of the market. The market is no longer able to adjust quickly to fluctuations in supply and demand.

This James Kingsdalec article suggests several interesting factors that seem to support the fluctuation assumption: Global oil production is currently declining, meaning that there is noone to act as a swing producer, but in a few years we may see a surge of new oil from “megaprojects“. One interesting thing to note here is the lack of certainty of future oil production capacity, the implied use of heavier grade oil, and the delay measured in years. These things all add up to a very uncertain future.

One of the things we really need to be aware of, with this kind of volatility, are the inevitable periodic price declines. These declines may cause policy makers to herald the end of the oil crisis, when the reality is very different.

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